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ENDOGENOUS GROWTH CYCLES

Klaus Wälde

International Economic Review, 2005, vol. 46, issue 3, 867-894

Abstract: Current explanations for why a growing economy necessarily goes through periods of high and low growth predict countercyclical R&D investment. As this is very controversial from an empirical perspective, a stochastic Poisson model of endogenous growth cycles is presented where the determinants of the cyclical behavior of R&D investment are analytically studied. Providing an explicit expression for the expected length of a cycle shows that high-frequency fluctuations can indeed be understood by this approach. It is also shown how small technological improvements translate into large aggregate fluctuations. Copyright 2005 by the Economics Department Of The University Of Pennsylvania And Osaka University Institute Of Social And Economic Research Association.

Date: 2005
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International Economic Review is currently edited by Harold L. Cole

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