Forecasting the public finances in the Treasury

Tim Pike and David Savage

Fiscal Studies, 1998, vol. 19, issue 1, 49-62

Abstract: This article describes the methods used by the Treasury and other government departments for making forecasts of the public finances. A highly detailed approach is required because of the Treasury’s budgetary role, but the aggregated results are subjected to careful ‘top-down’ checks. Forecasts have a necessary role in fiscal policy. But they are subject to large margins of error, and should be presented and used with caution.

JEL-codes: E6 H1 H6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1998
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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