 Who Will Pay for Long-Term Care in the UK? Projections Linking Macro- and Micro-Simulation ModelsRuth Hancock, Adelina Comas-Herrera, Raphael Wittenberg and Linda Pickard Fiscal Studies, 2003, vol. 24, issue 4, 387-426 Abstract: The long-term care funding system continues to attract much debate in the UK. We produce projections of state and private long-term care expenditure and analyse the distributional impact of state-financed care, through innovative linking of macro- and micro-simulation models. Variant assumptions about life expectancy, dependency and care costs are examined and the impact of universal state-financed (‘free’) personal care, based on need but not ability to pay, is investigated. We find that future long-term care expenditure is subject to considerable uncertainty and is particularly sensitive to assumed future trends in real input costs. On a central set of assumptions, free personal care would, by 2051, increase public spending on long-term care from 1.1 per cent of GDP to 1.3 per cent, or more if it generated an increase in demand. Among the care-home population aged 85 or over, the immediate beneficiaries of free personal care would be those with relatively high incomes. Date: 2003 There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it. Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:24:y:2003:i:4:p:387-426 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article More articles in Fiscal Studies from Institute for Fiscal Studies The Institute for Fiscal Studies 7 Ridgmount Street LONDON WC1E 7AE. Contact information at EDIRC. |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.