The Green Investment Potential of South Africa's Mining Sector: Policy Impacts and Investment Modeling

Yanwen Guan
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Yanwen Guan: BGRIMM Technology Group, China

International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information Systems (IJAEIS), 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-26

Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of policies on green investment in South Africa's mining industry and develops an investment forecasting model using a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model and a random forest model. The research shows that for every one-unit increase in policy intensity, green investment increases by 0.23 units at lag 1 and 0.15 units at lag 2. Incentive policies have a short-term effect, while the long-term effect of constraint policies remains relatively stable. The synergy between these two policy types significantly enhances investment potential. The model predicts that investment potential will reach USD 1.53 billion by 2025, representing a 65% increase compared to a single-policy scenario. Technological innovation also plays a key role in promoting green investment. This study provides a quantitative foundation for policymakers, emphasizes the importance of comprehensive policy tools, and offers policy recommendations to support the green transformation of the mining sector.

Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:igg:jaeis0:v:16:y:2025:i:1:p:1-26

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