A Forecasting Method for Fertilizers Consumption in Brazil

Eduardo Ogasawara, Daniel de Oliveira, Fabio Paschoal Junior, Rafael Castaneda, Myrna Amorim, Renato Mauro, Jorge Soares, João Quadros and Eduardo Bezerra
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Eduardo Ogasawara: CEFET-Federal Center of Technological Education Celso Suckow da Fonseca, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Daniel de Oliveira: CEFET-Federal Center of Technological Education Celso Suckow da Fonseca, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Fabio Paschoal Junior: CEFET-Federal Center of Technological Education Celso Suckow da Fonseca, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Rafael Castaneda: CEFET-Federal Center of Technological Education Celso Suckow da Fonseca, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Myrna Amorim: CEFET-Federal Center of Technological Education Celso Suckow da Fonseca, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Renato Mauro: CEFET-Federal Center of Technological Education Celso Suckow da Fonseca, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Jorge Soares: CEFET-Federal Center of Technological Education Celso Suckow da Fonseca, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
João Quadros: CEFET-Federal Center of Technological Education Celso Suckow da Fonseca, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Eduardo Bezerra: CEFET-Federal Center of Technological Education Celso Suckow da Fonseca, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information Systems (IJAEIS), 2013, vol. 4, issue 2, 23-36

Abstract: Tracking information about fertilizers consumption in the world is very important since they are used to produce agriculture commodities. Brazil consumes a large amount of fertilizers due to its large-scale agriculture fields. Most of these fertilizers are currently imported. The analysis of consumption of major fertilizers, such as Nitrogen-Phosphorus-Potassium (NPK), Sulfur, Phosphate Rock, Potash, and Nitrogen become critical for long-term government decisions. In this paper we present a method for fertilizers consumption forecasting based on both Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and logistic function models. Our method was used to forecast fertilizers consumption in Brazil for the next 20 years considering different economic growth for the entire country.

Date: 2013
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