A Weighted Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Risk Assessment of Information Security Management System

Seyed Mojtaba Hosseini Bamakan and Mohammad Dehghanimohammadabadi
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Seyed Mojtaba Hosseini Bamakan: School of Economics and Management, Key Laboratory of Big Data Mining and Knowledge Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Mohammad Dehghanimohammadabadi: Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA

International Journal of Enterprise Information Systems (IJEIS), 2015, vol. 11, issue 4, 63-78

Abstract: In recent decades, information has become a critical asset to various organizations, hence identifying and preventing the loss of information are becoming competitive advantages for firms. Many international standards have been developed to help organizations to maintain their competitiveness by applying risk assessment and information security management system and keep risk level as low as possible. This study aims to propose a new quantitative risk analysis and assessment methodology which is based on AHP and Monte Carlo simulation. In this method, AHP is used to create favorable weights for Confidentiality, Integrity and Availability (CIA) as security characteristic of any information asset. To deal with the uncertain nature of vulnerabilities and threats, Monte Carlo simulation is utilized to handle the stochastic nature of risk assessment by taking into account multiple judges' opinions. The proposed methodology is suitable for organizations that require risk analysis to implement ISO/IEC 27001 standard.

Date: 2015
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