Bayesian Belief Network Approach for Supply Risk Modelling

Anil Jindal, Satyendra Kumar Sharma and Srikanta Routroy
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Anil Jindal: Giani Zail Singh Campus College of Engineering and Technology, Maharaja Ranjit Singh Punjab Technical University, Bathinda, India
Satyendra Kumar Sharma: Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani, India
Srikanta Routroy: Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani, India

International Journal of Information Systems and Supply Chain Management (IJISSCM), 2022, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-17

Abstract: Today’s global and complex world increased the vulnerability to risks exponentially and organizations are compelled to develop effective risk management strategies for its mitigation. The prime focus of research is to design a supply risk model using Bayesian Belief Network bear in mind the tie-in of risk factors (i.e. objective and subjective) those are critical to a supply chain network. The proposed model can be re-engineered as per new information available at disclosure, so risk analysis will be current and relevant along the timeline as so situation is strained. The top three factors which influenced profitability were transportation risk and price risks. Netica is the platform used for designing and running simultaneous simulations on the Bayesian Network. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through a case study conducted in an Indian manufacturing supply chain taking inputs from supply chain/risk management experts. .

Date: 2022
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