The Robustness of Natural Gas Energy Supply: System Dynamics Modelling

Alireza Aslani, Samaneh Akbari and Sanaz Tabasi
Additional contact information
Alireza Aslani: University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of
Samaneh Akbari: Graduate School of Management and Planning, Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of
Sanaz Tabasi: University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of

International Journal of System Dynamics Applications (IJSDA), 2018, vol. 7, issue 3, 57-71

Abstract: This article describes how affordability, acceptability, and reliability of energy supply are three important concerns for government. Due to the crude oil restrictions and its environmental impacts, a replacement of other energy sources has become more important in recent years. Natural gas is one of the replacements as a cleaner source with a more suitable calorific value than oil in comparison with other renewable energy sources. Therefore, utilization of natural gas as the main source of replacement strategies in the energy system has accelerated at the national level. However, the natural gas energy system is a complex system including different influencing and influenced variables that affect social and economic factors. This research has developed a system dynamics model to understand the complexity of the natural gas energy systems at the macro-level. The model shows the effective sub-systems of energy system with their related variables. It helps to predict the effective factors of an energy supply system based on statistics approaches. After that, three scenarios are defined based on expert opinions and the behaviors of the sub-systems in each scenario is analyzed. The approach also helps to understand unknown consequences of a decision or scenario in the energy system.

Date: 2018
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://services.igi-global.com/resolvedoi/resolve. ... 018/IJSDA.2018070103 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:igg:jsda00:v:7:y:2018:i:3:p:57-71

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of System Dynamics Applications (IJSDA) is currently edited by Ahmad Taher Azar

More articles in International Journal of System Dynamics Applications (IJSDA) from IGI Global
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Journal Editor ().