Diffusion Analysis for Techno-Commercial Predictions in 5G HetNet Deployment Scenarios

Ashutosh Jha and Debashis Saha
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Ashutosh Jha: SPJIMR, Mumbai, India
Debashis Saha: Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta, India

International Journal of Technology Diffusion (IJTD), 2021, vol. 12, issue 4, 52-73

Abstract: Fifth-generation (5G) mobile services entail network densification, having massive MIMO air interfaces operating at millimeter-wave (mmWave) frequencies. Techno-economic analysis for such a complex heterogeneous network (HetNet) is challenging due to uncertain future demand and technical hurdles for ensuring seamless nationwide coverage and capacity. The authors show in this work how a logistic diffusion model may be used to forecast 5G adoption in a country and then utilize those forecasts to perform a techno-economic assessment of 5G deployment. The complete analysis is showcased for a European nation, namely France, for the period 2020-2030. The authors find that, theoretically, both the Capex and the total cost of ownership (TCO) for the considered 5G HetNets is cheaper (1/7th) than that for 4G LTE-Advanced (LTE-A) networks, also translating into higher returns. The sensitivity analysis predicts the average revenue from users (ARPU), spectrum acquisition costs, and spectrum bandwidth as the most influential variables for profitability.

Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:igg:jtd000:v:12:y:2021:i:4:p:52-73

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