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A prediction for AKP’s nationwide vote share in the 29 March 2009 Turkish local elections

Ali Akarca ()

Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 2009, vol. 24, issue 276, 7-22

Abstract: The expected nationwide vote share of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the March 29, 2009 Turkish local administrations election is predicted based on historical patterns rather than poll data. For this purpose a vote equation developed by Akarca and Tansel (2006) is used, after it is revised and updated. This model considers the credit or blame the government gets due to economic conditions, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of incumbency. It also takes into account strategic voting by the electorate to balance the power of the government, which is more pronounced in elections for local administrations. In the estimation of the equation, data pertaining to twenty-six parliamentary and local administrations elections held between 1950 and 2007 is utilized. If history is any guide, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) should be expected to receive about 40 percent of the vote in the coming election.

Keywords: Elections; Voter behavior; Economic voting; Strategic voting; Turkey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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