The EU or national reform program for Turkey: Does the political feasibility depend on the EU’s absorption capacity?

Hasan Ersel and Fatih Ozatay
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Hasan Ersel: Sabancı Üniversitesi

Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 2009, vol. 24, issue 285, 9-31

Abstract: Concerns of the EU countries on Turkey’s membership are summarized by the term ‘EU’s absorption capacity’. This implies that Turkey may end up as a member of the EU or may not. Even the reform process can abruptly come to an end due to reasons irrespective of the performance of Turkey. In a two-sector model, we show that despite this uncertainty, if before the start of the reform program a ‘no’ is perceived as less likely, the EU-reform will be supported ex-ante. However, a ‘no’ at the midst of the EU reform program can block the reform process ex-post, since both of the sectors suddenly find themselves in a position that they should have not accepted beforehand. Moreover, such a situation can render continuing with the alternative national reform program very hard.

Keywords: Reform; European Union; Turkey’s accession (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 O10 O19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:24:y:2009:i:285:p:9-31

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