EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Forecasting and Modelling of Electricity Prices by Radial Basis Functions: Turkish Electricity Market Experiment

Cenktan Özyildirim and Mehmet Fuat Beyazit
Additional contact information
Cenktan Özyildirim: İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi
Mehmet Fuat Beyazit: İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi

Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 2014, vol. 29, issue 344, 31-54

Abstract: In the past three decades the electricity has ceased to be a public good and was deregulated in many countries including the developing ones. Therefore the short-term price forecasts have become very important for all the market players in a new competitive environment. In this paper the hourly data of the Turkish electricity market are examined, considering the market players are interested in the evolution of hourly electricity prices and the aim is to forecast the hourly prices as close as possible to the market price to produce proper cash flow estimations. It is shown that the hourly prices have a recurring structure in time and this effect forms a rational for Radial Basis Functions method besides the conventional linear regression method in researching the price structure. Radial Basis Functions method produces slightly better estimation errors in terms of out of sample performance for a specific estimation period.

Keywords: Radial Basis Functions; Electricity Price Forecasting; Energy Markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C53 Q41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:29:y:2014:i:344:p:31-54

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.iif.com.t ... ew/iif.2014.344.4256

Access Statistics for this article

Iktisat Isletme ve Finans is currently edited by Ali Bilge

More articles in Iktisat Isletme ve Finans from Bilgesel Yayincilik
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Ali Bilge ().

 
Page updated 2018-05-26
Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:29:y:2014:i:344:p:31-54