Inferring Inflation Expectations from Fixed-Event Forecasts
Diego Winkelried
International Journal of Central Banking, 2017, vol. 13, issue 2, 1-31
Abstract:
Often, expected inflation measured by surveys is available only as fixed-event forecasts. Even though these surveys do contain information of a complete term structure of expectations, direct inferences about them are troublesome. Records of fixed-event forecasts through time are associated with timevarying forecast horizons, and there is no straightforward way to interpolate such figures. This paper proposes an adaptation of the measurement model of Kozicki and Tinsley (2012) to suit the intricacies of fixed-event data. Using the Latin American Consensus Forecasts, the model is estimated to study the behavior of inflation expectations in four inflation targeters (Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru). For these countries, the results suggest that the announcement of credible inflation targets has been instrumental in anchoring long-run expectations.
Date: 2017
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb17q2a1.pdf (application/pdf)
http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb17q2a1.htm (text/html)
Related works:
Working Paper: Inferring inflation expectations from fixed-event forecasts (2014) 
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2017:q:2:a:1
Access Statistics for this article
International Journal of Central Banking is currently edited by Loretta J. Mester
More articles in International Journal of Central Banking from International Journal of Central Banking
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Bank for International Settlements ().