Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act

Christopher Carroll, Edmund Crawley, Jiri Slacalek and Matthew White ()
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Edmund Crawley: Federal Reserve Board

International Journal of Central Banking, 2021, vol. 17, issue 1, 107-141

Abstract: To predict the effects of the 2020 U.S. CARES Act on consumption, we extend a model that matches responses to past consumption stimulus packages. The extension allows us to account for two novel features of the coronavirus crisis. First, during lockdowns, many types of spending are undesirable or impossible. Second, some of the jobs that disappear during the lockdown will not reappear. We estimate that, if the lockdown is short-lived (the median point of view as we are writing in April 2020), the combination of expanded unemployment insurance benefits and stimulus payments should be sufficient to allow a swift recovery in consumer spending to pre-crisis levels. If the lockdown lasts longer (or there is a "second wave"), an extension of enhanced unemployment benefits will likely be necessary for consumption spending to recover quickly.

JEL-codes: D83 D84 E21 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Modeling the consumption response to the CARES Act (2020)
Working Paper: Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act (2020)
Working Paper: Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2021:q:1:a:4

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