The Impact of Regime Change on the Influence of the Central Bank's Inflation Forecasts: Evidence from Japan's Shift to Inflation Targeting

Masazumi Hattori, Steven Kong, Frank Packer and Toshitaka Sekine
Additional contact information
Masazumi Hattori: Hitotsubashi University
Steven Kong: Hong Kong Monetary Authority
Frank Packer: Bank for International Settlements

International Journal of Central Banking, 2021, vol. 17, issue 70, 34

Abstract: Many central banks release inflation forecasts to reduce uncertainty; at the same time, an increasing number rely on a publicly stated medium-term inflation target to help anchor expectations.We examine how the adoption of an inflation target (IT) by a major central bank, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), influenced the impact of its inflation forecasts on private-sector expectations.We find that the relative accuracy of central bank forecasts versus those of the private sector declined, a deterioration not evident in GDP forecasts. This appears to have been due to a structural (upward) shift in central bank inflation forecasts with the introduction of the IT regime. Regression results suggest that private-sector forecasts discounted the shift in central bank forecasts. The results are consistent with a regime, after the adoption of inflation targeting, in which the private sector viewed the central bank forecasts as upwardly biased. More generally, they confirm the difficulty in raising inflation expectations from below in the presence of an effective lower bound in the nominal policy interest rate.

JEL-codes: E31 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb21q4a7.pdf (application/pdf)
http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb21q4a7.htm (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2021:q:4:a:7

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Central Banking is currently edited by Loretta J. Mester

More articles in International Journal of Central Banking from International Journal of Central Banking
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Bank for International Settlements ().