Order Matters: An Experimental Study on How Question Ordering Affects Survey-Based Inflation Forecasts

Maxime Phillot and Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch

International Journal of Central Banking, 2024, vol. 20, issue 3, 63-114

Abstract: Policymakers often rely on survey data when gauging expectations. To know the limits of survey data is thus crucial. We look at inflation expectations as measured through the Deloitte CFO Survey Switzerland and respondents’ sensitivity to question ordering thereof. We investigate whether forecast inconsistencies—the discrepancies between point and density forecasts—as well as forecast accuracy change significantly depending on whether the point forecast or the density forecast is asked first. We find that forecast inconsistencies are sizable and order matters. Density forecasts seem to be less affected by question ordering than point forecasts and more accurate than point forecasts.

Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb24q3a2.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2024:q:3:a:2

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Central Banking is currently edited by Loretta J. Mester

More articles in International Journal of Central Banking from International Journal of Central Banking
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Bank for International Settlements ().