The Housing Supply Channel of Monetary Policy

Bruno Albuquerque, Martin Iseringhausen and Frederic Opitz

International Journal of Central Banking, 2026, vol. 22, issue 2, 443-523

Abstract: We study the role of regional housing markets in the transmission of U.S. monetary policy. Using a FAVAR model over 1999:Q1–2019:Q4, we find that differences in housing supply constraints explain part of the regional heterogeneity in the responses of U.S. states to a contractionary monetary policy shock. Specifically, house prices and consumption respond more in supply-constrained states. Financial stability risks also increase more sharply in these areas as mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures surge, worsening banks’ balance sheets. Our findings stress the importance of regional housing supply conditions in assessing the macrofinancial effects of rising interest rates.

Date: 2026
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Related works:
Working Paper: The Housing Supply Channel of Monetary Policy (2024)
Working Paper: The housing supply channel of monetary policy (2024)
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