Asymmetric adjustment and nonlinear dynamics in real exchange rates

Hyginus Leon and Serineh Najarian
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Hyginus Leon: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, USA, Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, USA
Serineh Najarian: Hertford College, Oxford, UK, Postal: Hertford College, Oxford, UK

International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2005, vol. 10, issue 1, 15-39

Abstract: This paper examines whether deviations from PPP are stationary in the presence of nonlinearity, and whether the adjustment towards PPP is symmetric from above and below. Using alternative nonlinear models, our results support mean reversion and asymmetric adjustment dynamics. We find differences in magnitudes, frequencies and durations of the deviations of exchange rates from fixed and time-varying thresholds, both between over-appreciations and over-depreciations and between developed and developing countries. In particular, the average cumulative sum of deviations during periods when exchange rates are below forecasts is twice that during periods of over-appreciation and larger for developing than advanced countries. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 2005
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DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.257

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