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Real interest rates linkages between the USA and the UK in the postwar period

Angelos Kanas and Georgios Tsiotas
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Angelos Kanas: Department of Economics, University of Crete, and Regional Analysis Division, FORTH, Greece, Postal: Department of Economics, University of Crete, and Regional Analysis Division, FORTH, Greece

International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2005, vol. 10, issue 3, 251-262

Abstract: This paper addresses the issue of real interest rate linkages between the UK and the USA during the postwar period. We use a bivariate Markov switching vector error correction model, which accounts for both the regime switches in the real interest rates and their long-run cointegration properties over that period. We find strong evidence of two volatility regimes, namely a high-volatility and a low-volatility regime, jointly characterizing the US and the UK real interest rates. Evidence is found of high-volatility regime dependence between the two real interest rates. In addition, there is evidence of regime-dependent Granger causality: the US real interest rate Granger causes the UK only in the regime of high volatility. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 2005
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DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.271

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