Non-linearities in East European Black-Market Exchange Rates

David Peel and Alan E H Speight

International Journal of Finance & Economics, 1997, vol. 2, issue 1, 39-57

Abstract: This paper reports evidence of non-linearities in the black-market exchange returns of the Bulgarian lev, Czechoslovak koruna, Hungarian forint, Polish zloty, Rumanian lei, and Soviet ruble. Attempts to characterize that non-linearity using QGARCH and simultaneous BL-QGARCH models prove successful for the forint, zloty and ruble. However, the appropriate representations of non-linearities in the lev, koruna and lei remain unresolved, and a low-order deterministic characterization of the lev cannot be precluded. Copyright @ 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Date: 1997
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