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The Surge in Capital Flows: Analysis of 'Pull' and 'Push' Factors

Pierre-Richard Agénor

International Journal of Finance & Economics, 1998, vol. 3, issue 1, 39-57

Abstract: This paper uses an intertemporal optimizing model of a small open economy facing imperfect world capital markets to assess the effects of "pull" and "push" factors on capital flows, asset accumulation, and the real exchange rate. A positive money demand shock raises consumption and holdings of foreign assets and appreciates the real exchange rate in the long run; it has an ambiguous effect on real money balances on impact. A positive productivity shock in the traded goods sector also leads to a long-run real appreciation (the Balassa-Samuelson effect), but the impact effect on relative prices is ambiguous. An increase in government spending on home goods leads to a real appreciation in the long run, but it has an ambiguous effect on the economy's stock of net foreign assets. The dynamic effects associated with a reduction in the world interest rate depend on the degree of intertemporal substitution in consumption and the initial asset position of private agents. Copyright @ 1998 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Date: 1998
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