Market Based Debt Reduction Agreements: A Case Study on Mexican and Polish Brady Bonds

Luca Barbone and Lorenzo Forni

International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2001, vol. 6, issue 2, 115-26

Abstract: This paper analyzes some aspects of the workings of the Brady bond (restructured Less Developed Countries debt) market. It concentrates on the effects of the December 1994 Mexican crisis on the risk assessment (as measured by the stripped spread) of Poland, another Brady country. The main findings are: (i) over the sample period, the unit root hypothesis on the risk premium (measured by the stripped spread) of Mexico and Poland cannot be rejected; this is consistent with the idea that the risk premium reflects new information accruing to the market; (ii) comovements in stripped spreads between Mexico and Poland were stronger during the period of the Peso crisis: we do not reject the null of cointegration for the year that includes the crisis (July 1994-July 1995), but we do reject the null for the year starting 6 months after the crisis (July 1995-July 1996); (iii) the crisis has had a strong permanent effect on the risk assessment of Mexico with respect to the one of Poland (550 basis points circa). Copyright @ 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Date: 2001
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