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A new interpretation of the exchange rate-yield differential nexus

Jerry Coakley, Ana-Maria Fuertes and Andrew Wood ()

International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2004, vol. 9, issue 3, 201-218

Abstract: Empirical studies have had difficulty in establishing the long-run relationship between real exchange rates and real yield differentials predicted by sticky price exchange rate models. We revisit this issue in a nonstationary panel regression framework. This facilitates estimation of a long-run parameter even when the underlying relation-ship is subject to permanent shocks or the variables do not cointegrate. The slope coefficient estimate from a sample of 23 industrialized countries 1973M1-1998M12 has the correct sign and is statistically significant for both short and long-term yields. These results support fundamentals-based models of exchange rate behaviour while permitting real factors to play a role. Moreover, they indicate that capital markets integration is more advanced than hitherto believed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 2004
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Related works:
Working Paper: A New Interpretation of the Exchange Rate - Yield Differential Nexus (2003)
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DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.230

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