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Projected Population, Inequality and Social Expenditures: The Case of Flanders

Rembert De Blander, Ingrid Schockaert (), André Decoster () and Patrick Deboosere ()
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Ingrid Schockaert: Interface Demography, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium.
Patrick Deboosere: Interface Demography, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium.

International Journal of Microsimulation, 2017, vol. 10, issue 3, 92-133

Abstract: We investigate the budgetary and distributional effects of a demographic and economic evolution in Flanders between 2011 and 2031. We project demographic changes by means of two multi-state population projections (LiPro-projections), on the basis of which we statically reweigh the EU-SILC 2008 dataset. In addition, we assume a modest real exogenous ?meaning not induced by the demographic projections? growth rate of 1%. Population-wise, we find a pronounced ageing, a growth of single-headed households, mostly to the detriment of couples with children, and a closing generational gap in education. While income inequality exhibits a non-monotonous pattern over time (reaching a maximum around 2020), poverty steadily declines after 2011. We find a large increase in expenditures on pensions, which is, however, covered by the modest public income growth we assume, while keeping the tax system constant in real terms.

JEL-codes: H24 H68 I32 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Handle: RePEc:ijm:journl:v10:y:2017:i:3:p:92-133