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Female Labour Force Projections Using Microsimulation for Six EU Countries

Ross Richardson (), Lia Pacelli (), Ambra Poggi () and Matteo Richiardi ()
Additional contact information
Lia Pacelli: Universita’ di Torino and LABORatorio Revelli, Torino, Italy.
Ambra Poggi: University of Milan-Bicocca and LABORatorio Revelli, Torino, Italy.

International Journal of Microsimulation, 2018, vol. 11, issue 2, 5-51

Abstract: We project medium to long term trends in labour force participation and employment for selected low-participation European Union countries (Italy, Spain, Ireland, Hungary and Greece), with Sweden as a benchmark, by means of a dynamic microsimulation model. By 2020, only Sweden will be above the Europe 2020 target of 75% employment rate, though Ireland will be close; the target will be approached by all other countries only at the end of the simulation period at 2050, with the exception of Hungary. Our forecasts, that fully take into account the uncertainty coming from the estimation of all the processes in the significantly depart from the official projections of the European Commission for two of the six countries under analysis. microsimulation,

Keywords: DYNAMIC MICROSIMULATION; LABOUR SUPPLY; FEMALE PARTICIPATION; GENDER GAP; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 J21 C63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Working Paper: Female labour force projections using microsimulation for six EU countries (2016) Downloads
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