Building a Microsimulation Model of Heroin Use Careers in Australia

Alison Ritter (), Nagesh Shukla (), Marian Shanahan (), Phuong Van Hoang (), Vu Lam Cao (), Pascal Perez () and Michael Farrell ()
Additional contact information
Alison Ritter: Drug Policy Modelling Program, National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, University of New South Wales, NSW, Australia 2052
Nagesh Shukla: SMART Infrastructure Facility, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia 2522
Marian Shanahan: Drug Policy Modelling Program, National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, University of New South Wales, NSW, Australia 2052
Phuong Van Hoang: Drug Policy Modelling Program, National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, University of New South Wales, NSW, Australia 2052
Vu Lam Cao: SMART Infrastructure Facility, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia 2522
Pascal Perez: SMART Infrastructure Facility, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia 2522
Michael Farrell: National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, University of New South Wales, NSW, Australia 2052

International Journal of Microsimulation, 2016, vol. 9, issue 3, 140-176

Abstract: Illicit heroin use is a worldwide problem, with significant health and social costs. Treatment is known to be effective in changing heroin use habits, but it often needs to be provided over a lifetime, with people cycling in and out of treatment. It is therefore important to capture a long-term perspective on heroin use careers. The aim of this project was to build a lifetime microsimulation model of heroin using careers. This paper describes the conceptual logic of the model, the input parameters and the verification and validation results. A microsimulation model was chosen as the most appropriate simulation platform with 9 states, and 111,400 individuals (aged between 18 and 60) each with gender, HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) and HCV (hepatitis C) status, and treatment history. Probabilities associated with crime commission and individually calculated lengths of stay in each state were determined from multiple datasets. The model included costs associated with treatment provision, healthcare services, criminal activity, life years lost, and family benefit of treatment. The final model represented 42 years of a heroin use career for a cohort based on Australian (New South Wales) data. Individuals cycle into and out of heroin using states (including abstinence), as well as treatment and prison states. We were able to build a stable, tractable model and verified all parameters. Validation against external data sources revealed high validity. While there are limitations associated with any model, the heroin career model now has the potential to be used for simulations of alternate policy scenarios.

Keywords: Microsimulation model; heroin; opioids; lifetime model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C15 C63 I12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ijm:journl:v:9:y:2016:i:3:p:140-176

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