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Using the Bifurcation Model to Describe the Dynamics of the Global Economy’s GDP

Anatoly A. Kilyachkov, Larisa A. Chaldaeva and Nikolay A. Kilyachkov
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Anatoly A. Kilyachkov: EY (Ernst and Young) CIS, Moscow, Russia
Larisa A. Chaldaeva: Chair Economy and Crisis Management, Financial University under the Government of Russia, Russia.
Nikolay A. Kilyachkov: Moscow Institute of International Relations (University), Moscow, Russia.

International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), 2015, vol. 3, issue 9, 448-457

Abstract: Purpose: The global economy experiences periodic changes in GDP growth rates that regularly develop into economic crises. A model for describing this process should be of considerable scientific and practical interest. Methodology- In this paper, the bifurcation model, which explains the occurrence of economic cycles, is tested on real experimental data on GDP growth rates. This paper explores the dynamics of the model’s bifurcation parameters at short intervals of time. Findings- The test results showed that the proposed model successfully describes the behavior of the world economy. As a result of this study qualitative characteristics for the model were obtained, including stability areas, stable fixed points, stable cycles and dynamic stability areas. A comparison with statistical data showed that GDP for global economic growth coincided with the areas of stability of the bifurcation model, indicating the importance of studying the qualitative characteristics of the bifurcation model to describe global economic processes. Recommendations: This study open new directions for further research. In further studies we intend to study the qualitative features of the bifurcation model and, primarily, the areas of stability of approximating polynomials of the 3rd degree, characterizing the dynamics of the development of the world's GDP. It is possible that the results of these studies will provide new tool for analyzing the dynamics of the global economic system.

Keywords: Economic Cycles; Areas of stability; Stable cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C02 E10 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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