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La estructura temporal de tasas de interés en México: ¿Puede predecir la actividad económica futura?

Sara Castellanos () and Eduardo Camero ()
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Eduardo Camero: Banco de México y University of Chicago

Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, 2003, vol. 18, issue 2, 33-66

Abstract: This article uses conventional models to evaluate whether the term structure of interest rates can predict economic activity in Mexico. A positive relationship between interest rate differentials and economic activity is detected, even after controlling for the monetary policy stance through short term interest rates or monetary aggregates. The differentials among longer term interest rates are found to contain more information about future economic activity than the shorter term ones.

Keywords: term structure of interest rates; monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E43 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003
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Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review is currently edited by Carlos Ponce

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