 THE ASSESSMENT OF PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY IN A VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL FOR ROMANIARomanian Journal of Economics, 2013, vol. 37, issue 2(46), 124-134 Abstract: The assessment of uncertainty that characterizes the econometric model parameters is an important input for policymakers that have to establish more alternative policies to protect against persistent shocks of the economy. The objective of this useful research for policymakers is to evaluate the parameter uncertainty in the behavioural equations of a vector error correction model for Romania. A positive impact of the foreign direct investment and exports on GDP real rate was measured on the horizon Q1:2000-Q4:2012. A permanent shock was observed in parameters. The error correction vector explains quarterly around 10.6% of the desequilibrium. The necessary period for reducing the gap between the value of GDP in the last quarter of 2012 and that in the steady-state is 14 quarters, till the second quarter of 2016. Keywords: parameters uncertainty; vector error correction model; behavioural equations; steady-state; GDP rate; foreign direct investments; exports (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ine:journl:v:2:y:2013:i:44:p:124-134 Access Statistics for this article Romanian Journal of Economics is currently edited by Institute of National Economy More articles in Romanian Journal of Economics from Institute of National Economy Contact information at EDIRC. |
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