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The kitchin cycles of interwar Romania’s economy

Florin Pavelescu ()

Romanian Journal of Economics, 2021, vol. 53, issue 2(62), 05-26

Abstract: The paper reviews the concept of Kitchin cycles and their correlation with the Juglar cycles, revealed by Schumpeter (1939) and the main approaches concerning the cyclical evolution of interwar Romania’s economy adopted by Romanian economists. The author proposes a set of indicators to detect the Kitchin cycles of Romania’s economy during the interwar years. Those indicators consider the change in the sectoral structure of value added, the dynamics of prices and the features of labor market disequilibria. Therefore, it is possible to identify two Juglar cycles and six Kitchin cycles. Schumpeter’s assumption concerning the correlation between Kitchin cycles and Juglar cycles is confirmed. This way, it is possible to define three types of Kitchin cycles that better explain the features of Romanian economy evolution during the analyzed period. The paper finds a low correlation between Kitchin and short political cycles.

Keywords: economic cycles; foreign trade balance; gross domestic product per capita; labor market disequilibria; inflation; political (electoral) cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E01 E24 E31 E32 N14 O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Handle: RePEc:ine:journl:v:53:y:2021:i:62:p:05-26