AIDS Impact on the Number of Intravenous Drug Users

Jonathan P. Caulkins and Edward H. Kaplan
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Jonathan P. Caulkins: Carnegie Mellon University, School of Urban and Public Affairs, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213
Edward H. Kaplan: School of Organization and Management and Department of Operations Research, Yale University, Box 1A, New Haven, Connecticut 06520

Interfaces, 1991, vol. 21, issue 3, 50-63

Abstract: For more than a decade the size of the intravenous (IV) drug-using population was relatively stable, but AIDS has changed that by increasing the exit rate and (probably) decreasing the recruitment rate. We created two mathematical models to make quantitative predictions about this change. The first is a simple descriptive model; the second takes a more detailed look at needle sharing. Both come to the same conclusion; barring other changes, AIDS will substantially reduce the number of IV drug users, perhaps by 50 percent or more. This implies that AIDS has changed the baseline against which one should measure the success of policies designed to reduce the number of IV drug users.

Keywords: health care: epidemiology; forecasting: applications (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1991
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:orinte:v:21:y:1991:i:3:p:50-63

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