AIDS: Predicting the Next Map

Peter Gould, Joseph Kabel, Wilpen Gorr and Andrew Golub
Additional contact information
Peter Gould: Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802
Joseph Kabel: Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802
Wilpen Gorr: School of Urban and Public Affairs, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213-3890
Andrew Golub: School of Urban and Public Affairs, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213-3890

Interfaces, 1991, vol. 21, issue 3, 80-92

Abstract: In modeling the AIDS epidemic, the geographic dimensions have been totally ignored, partly as a result of ignorance, partly from an exaggerated and unreasoned concern for confidentiality. For both educational intervention (animated cartography for television) and health planning (expanding already overstressed facilities), it is necessary to predict the next maps, not just numbers down the time line. Spatial adaptive filtering, combined with parametric tracking, searches out and employs both spatial and temporal structure in ( x , y , t ) series, producing geographic forecasts with greatly reduced error terms compared to conventional approaches.

Keywords: health care: epidemiology; forecasting: applications (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1991
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