DIRECTV: Forecasting Diffusion of a New Technology Prior to Product Launch

Frank M. Bass, Kent Gordon, Teresa L. Ferguson and Mary Lou Githens
Additional contact information
Frank M. Bass: School of Management, University of Texas at Dallas, P.O. Box 830688, JO 5.1, Richardson, Texas 75083-0688
Kent Gordon: SMART—Strategic Marketing And Research Techniques, 2700 Ygnacio Valley Road, Walnut Creek, California 94598
Teresa L. Ferguson: DIRECTV, Inc., 2230 East Imperial Highway, El Segundo, California 90245
Mary Lou Githens: DIRECTV, Inc.

Interfaces, 2001, vol. 31, issue 3_supplement, S82-S93

Abstract: We conducted research for planning the launch of a satellite television product, leading to a prelaunch forecast of subscriptions of satellite television over a five-year horizon. The forecast was based on the Bass model. We derived parameters of the model in part from stated-intentions data from potential consumers and in part by guessing by analogy. The 1992 forecast of the adoption and diffusion of satellite television proved to be quite good in comparison with actual subscriptions over the five-year period from 1994 through 1999.

Keywords: MARKETING—NEW PRODUCTS; INDUSTRIES—COMMUNICATIONS; JOURNALISM (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (23)

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