Case Article—Canyon Bicycles: Judgmental Demand Forecasting in Direct Sales

Christoph Diermann () and Arnd Huchzermeier ()
Additional contact information
Christoph Diermann: WHU—Otto Beisheim School of Management, 56179 Vallendar, Germany
Arnd Huchzermeier: WHU—Otto Beisheim School of Management, 56179 Vallendar, Germany

INFORMS Transactions on Education, 2017, vol. 17, issue 2, 58-62

Abstract: We present a comprehensive introduction to judgmental demand forecasting along with a model that allows for effectively debiasing team forecasts and estimating demand distributions. This case is recommended for classes in operations management, marketing, or retail management; two companion papers are ideal for advanced courses (e.g., master’s or doctorate programs). We confront students with a demand forecasting problem encountered by Canyon Bicycles, the German premium bicycle manufacturer and online retailer. We present both a model and a process for deriving an accurate judgmental demand forecast. In particular, we demonstrate how one can (i) identify the best team composition, (ii) prepare for and run the forecasting meeting, (iii) debias team forecasts, (iv) estimate demand distributions, (v) deal with heterogeneous product collections, and (vi) judge the quality of forecasted demand distributions.

Keywords: judgmental demand forecasting; demand uncertainty; debiasing demand forecasts; forecast accuracy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1287/ited.2016.0165ca (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:orited:v:17:y:2017:i:2:p:58-62

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in INFORMS Transactions on Education from INFORMS Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Asher ().