Engineering Effective Responses to Influenza Outbreaks

Stan N. Finkelstein (), Richard C. Larson (), Karima Nigmatulina () and Anna Teytelman ()
Additional contact information
Stan N. Finkelstein: Engineering Systems Division, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139; and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts 02115
Richard C. Larson: Engineering Systems Division, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139
Karima Nigmatulina: Institute of Master Planning for the City of Moscow, Moscow 125047, Russia
Anna Teytelman: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139

Service Science, 2015, vol. 7, issue 2, 119-131

Abstract: We present a policy-oriented summary of our six-year “service-systems-focused” research into pandemic influenza. We cover three topics: (1) R 0 , the basic reproductive number for the flu; (2) NPIs, non-pharmaceutical inventions to reduce the chance of becoming infected; and (3) flu vaccine allocations. We use a service-systems framing and mathematical modeling approach incorporating theories and data on the spread and control of influenza. We examine how behavioral actions and governmental policies, thoughtfully derived, can minimize influenza’s societal impact. There is widespread misinterpretation that R 0 is a numerical constant of a given virus. We argue that it is not, but rather that its value is largely determined by local conditions and actions, many under our individual and collective control. This control is, in the absence of vaccine, intelligent use of NPIs—highly effective in reducing the spread of influenza. Our vaccine analysis relies on government data depicting flu-like cases and vaccines administered during the 2009 H1N1 outbreak. During that outbreak, barely half of all states received allotments of vaccine in time to protect any citizens. The method of vaccine deployment—in proportion to census population—ignored the temporally uneven flu wave progression across the United States.

Keywords: healthcare; influenza; non-pharmaceutical interventions; health service systems; health policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/serv.2015.0099 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:orserv:v:7:y:2015:i:2:p:119-131

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Service Science from INFORMS Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Asher ().