A stochastic forecast for the Croatian pension system

Ivan Tomas ()
Additional contact information
Ivan Tomas: student

Public Sector Economics, 2020, vol. 44, issue 1, 41-98

Abstract: This paper analyses the financial sustainability of the Croatian pension system after the reform that was adopted on January 1, 2019. The Croatian pension system as we know it today was started in 1999 with a reform that created the three pillars of the pension system. Over the next twenty years, Croatian economic and social conditions shifted in an unexpected way and a new reform was needed to ensure financial stability is maintained. In this paper I will analyse population trends in Croatia and forecast movements up to 2060. Afterwards, I will analyse the net government cash flow generated from the pension system, by using the forecast population numbers. The beginning year of the forecast horizon is 2018, as some data were not yet available for this year. I use stochastic methods to perform my analysis.

Keywords: demographic; labour economics; government; Leslie matrix; stochastics forecast; pension system; Croatia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H55 H68 J11 J13 J14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.pse-journal.hr/upload/files/pse/2020/1/tomas.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ipf:psejou:v:44:y:2020:i:1:p:41-98

DOI: 10.3326/pse.44.1.2

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Public Sector Economics from Institute of Public Finance Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Martina Fabris ().