Public debt and GDP growth in BRICS: unravelling time-scale complexities through wavelet analysis

Ajaz Ayoub (), Tahir Ahmad Wani () and Abid Sultan ()
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Ajaz Ayoub: Research Scholar, Department of Humanities, Social Sciences & Management, National Institute of Technology, Srinagar, J&K, India
Tahir Ahmad Wani: Assistant Professor, Department of Humanities, Social Sciences & Management, National Institute of Technology, Srinagar, J&K, India
Abid Sultan: Assistant Professor, Department of Agriculture, Statistics & Economics, Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, Shalimar, Srinagar, J&K, India

Public Sector Economics, 2025, vol. 49, issue 3, 369-393

Abstract: This study examines the impact of public debt on economic growth in BRIC nations - Brazil, Russia, India, and China - over 1996-2022 using wavelet coherence and cross-wavelet analysis to capture both short-term dynamics and longterm trends. The findings reveal a positive but heterogeneous co-movement between public debt and GDP, intensifying during COVID-19. Russia exhibits short-to-medium-term co-movement, while Brazil, India, and China show mediumto-long-term patterns. In Brazil and Russia, public debt drives growth during economic distress, whereas in India and China, growth leads to debt accumulation. Granger causality tests confirm the directionality of these relationships, supporting the robustness of the wavelet-based results. The study highlights the need for tailored debt management strategies aligned with country-specific economic conditions to support sustained and inclusive growth.

Keywords: public debt; economic growth; BRICS; wavelet analysis; emerging nations; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F34 H63 H87 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ipf:psejou:v:49:y:2025:i:3:p:369-393

DOI: 10.3326/pse.49.3.2

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