Efectos de las Crisis Anticipadas y No Anticipadas sobre El Contagio Financiero Internacional

Mario Lagunes () and Karen Watkins ()
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Mario Lagunes: Universidad Popular Autónoma del Estado de Puebla.
Karen Watkins: Universidad Popular Autónoma del Estado de Puebla.

Panorama Económico, 2009, vol. IV, issue 08, 101-148

Abstract: La literatura sobre contagio financiero internacional señala que crisis financieras anticipadas ocasionan un efecto contagio nulo; lo contrario ocurre con crisis no anticipadas. Este artículo propone una metodología para comparar el contagio que pudo haber ocasionado la crisis de Hong Kong en 1997 (no anticipada) y la argentina en 2001 (anticipada), sobre Brasil y México. Como variables de contagio se toman los rendimientos accionarios y las tasas de interés reales. Los resultados muestran que la anticipación de la crisis argentina evitó el contagio sobre México y Brasil; por el contrario, la crisis en Hong Kong sí contagió a estos mercados. / The literature on international financial contagion explains that anticipated crises do not produce contagion; the contrary occurs with non-anticipated ones. This paper proposes a methodology to compare the contagion effects that could have occurred with the Hong Kong-1997 crisis (non-anticipated) and the Argentinean one (anticipated), over Brazil and Mexico. As contagion variables we use stock returns and real interest rates. Results show that the anticipation of the Argentinean crisis avoided the contagion effects over Mexico and Brazil; on the contrary, the Hong Kong crisis had contagion outcomes over these markets.

Keywords: Crisis financieras; contagio; anticipación de crisis; mercados bursátiles; tasas de interés / Financial crises; contagion; anticipation of crises; stock markets; interest rates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G01 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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