YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN BULGARIA AND OTHER COUNTRIES OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE

Eugeniusz Kwiatkowski and Agnieszka Krzetowska

Economy & Business Journal, 2025, vol. 19, issue 1, 82-93

Abstract: This paper aims to assess the relationship between GDP growth and changes in youth unemployment in Bulgaria and other countries of Central and Eastern Europe during 2000–2023. The study empirically verifies Okun’s Law in a cohort-based approach, disaggregated by age groups (15–74, 15–29, 15–24) and gender. The analysis is based on Eurostat panel data covering 11 countries in the region, with a separate model estimated for Bulgaria. To ensure the robustness of the estimates, the study employs outlier-resistant techniques and nonparametric bootstrap methods. The results confirm a negative relationship between economic growth and youth unemployment dynamics. In the pooled model for the 11 countries, the Okun coefficient for the total population (15–74) was –0.22, and as high as –0.51 for the 15–24 age group. In the Bulgarian model, the relationship proved even stronger: –0.27 for the total population and –0.70 for the youngest workers, with young men showing the highest sensitivity to GDP fluctuations (–0.74).

Keywords: youth unemployment; okun’s law; bulgaria; central and eastern europe; robust regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:isp:journl:v:19:y:2025:i:1:p:82-93

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