Econometric Analysis of the Effect of Oil Price Volatility on Country Economic Indicators: The Case of Turkey

Merve Arslan (), Hamide Arslan () and Ismail Erkan Celik ()
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Merve Arslan: Halic University, Faculty of Business Administration, Department of Business Administration, Istanbul, Turkey
Hamide Arslan: Istanbul, Turkey
Ismail Erkan Celik: DoguÅŸ University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Istanbul, Turkey

Muhasebe Enstitusu Dergisi - Journal of Accounting Institute, 2022, vol. 0, issue 67, 71-81

Abstract: Developments in crude oil prices are closely followed in world markets and have a significant impact on the conjuncture of world economics. This study aims to investigate the effects of fluctuations in oil prices on the Turkish economy. The data used in this study cover the years 2008-2020. The macroeconomic variables used in the study are GNP, inflation, unemployment, and the current account deficit/GNP ratio. The vector autoregression (VAR) model is used to estimate the effect of volatility observed in oil prices on macroeconomic factors. According to the analysis results, the lagged values of the volatility observed in oil prices were observed to have an effect on Turkey’s inflation level. In addition, the lagged values of Turkey’s unemployment rates were determined to have an effect on its current account deficit and economic growth rates.

Keywords: Oil Prices; Vector Autoregression; Macroeconomic Factors; Turkey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ist:imeder:v:0:y:2022:i:67:p:71-81

DOI: 10.26650/MED.1105715

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