Analysis of Internal Migration in Turkey Within The Framework of the Todaro Paradox: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach

Emrah Kiratoglu and İlknur Yesim Dincel ()
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Emrah Kiratoglu: Harran University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Finance, Sanliurfa, Turkey
İlknur Yesim Dincel: Harran University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Sanliurfa, Turkey

Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, 2021, vol. 71, issue 71-2, 527-548

Abstract: In primitive societies, individual and mass migration took place to settle in more productive and/or safer areas. In the modern world, migration occurs for similar reasons, such as obtaining a higher level of welfare, accessing educational and employment opportunities, and fleeing the dangers of war. The Todaro Paradox is an economic theory proposing that migration from rural to urban areas in developing countries can destroy the positive effect of increased urban employment opportunities. Based on the Todaro Paradox, this study sought to measure the effect of increased employment opportunities in cities and migration from rural to urban on urban unemployment in Turkey in the 1988-2019 time period. The findings obtained using ARDL bound testing reveal a statistically significant relationship between the relevant variables. Suggesting that migration from rural to urban areas in Turkey suppresses growth in employment opportunities and increases unemployment. As long as elevated expected income is not supported through rural development policies, internal migration will continue. Rising unemployment among urban populations will result in significant economic and sociological challenges.

Keywords: Internal migration; Unemployment; Todaro paradox; ARDL bound test JEL Classification: J61; R10; R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ist:journl:v:71:y:2021:i:2:p:527-548

DOI: 10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1003144

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