Analysis of External Debt-Based Growth Hypothesis with Markov Regime Switching Models for the Turkish Economy

Yusuf Dogan and Deniz Şükrüoğlu
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Yusuf Dogan: Zonguldak Bulent Ecevit University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Zonguldak, Turkiye

Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, 2022, vol. 72, issue 72-1, 329-360

Abstract: This study presents the effects of Turkiye’s external debt on economic growth and is examined with Markov Regime Switching Models, unlike previous studies, considering that Hamilton’s (1989) regime-switching models are a very powerful tool for modeling non-stationary time series. In this study, annual data for the period 1970–2020 were used for the Turkish economy. Countries use external borrowing to achieve economic growth and development objectives. However, the effect of external debt on economic growth is still debated in the literature. The vast majority of empirical investigations have shown that external borrowing has a negative impact on economic growth. In the analyses, the 1970–2020 period of the Turkish economy was divided into three periods, which can be named growth, crisis, and pre crisis periods. Analyses show that only the coefficient of the gross external debt stock variable differs in the obtained regimes. According to the results of the analyses, it is seen that the gross external debt stock has a negative effect on Turkiye’s economic growth in all regimes, including the growth period, while the gross fixed capital formation, export, and population have a positive effect

Keywords: External Debt; Economic Growth; Markov Regime Switching Model JEL Classification: F34; O47; C24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ist:journl:v:72:y:2022:i:1:p:329-360

DOI: 10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1034639

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