Volatility Dynamics of the Inflation Expectation

Mefule Fındıkçı Erdoğan, Hüseyin Karagöz, Selçuk Alp and Elçin Aykaç Alp
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Mefule Fındıkçı Erdoğan: İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi
Hüseyin Karagöz: İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi
Selçuk Alp: Yıldız Teknik Üniversitesi
Elçin Aykaç Alp: İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi

Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, 2025, vol. 75, issue 1, 246-265

Abstract: This study investigates how the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey fulfilled its responsibility of ensur/ ing price stability by focusing on inflation and inflation expectations volatility between August 2001 and November 2023. The study utilised ARCH models, preferred in financial series, to demonstrate time/varying volatility and volatility clustering to examine the alterations in the volatility of inflation and inflation expectations. Achieving price stability, these are considered as indicators. The threshold model analysed inflation behaviour around a specific threshold by presidential terms and presented different coefficients and standard errors. Raising concerns about recent policy changes weakening the institutional and operational independence of the CBRT, the analysis is structured around the CBRT governors tenures. The findings show Serdengeçtis tenure as the most successful, with inflation in single digits. Yılmaz and Başçı also maintained stability despite the crises. During the Çetinkaya term, the independence of the CBRT was questioned, inflation rates climbed, and tensions with policymakers increased. Uysal pursued a low/interest rate policy and kept inflation high but stable. Ağbal raised interest rates but was dismissed early. Kavcıoğlus tenure saw record inflation and volatility. In June 2023, Erkans appointment promised a return to orthodox policies, but their effectiveness in controlling inflation and managing expectations remains uncertain.

Keywords: Inflation; expectation; ARCH; Threshold (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ist:journl:v:75:y:2025:i:1:p:246-265

DOI: 10.26650/ISTJECON2024-1662184

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