Forecasting in Cointegration Systems

Michael Clements and David Hendry

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1995, vol. 10, issue 2, 127-46

Abstract: We consider the implications for forecast accuracy of imposing unit roots and cointegrating restrictions in linear systems of I(1) variables in levels, differences, and cointegrated combinations. Asymptotic formulae are obtained for multi-step forecast error variances for each representation. Alternative measures of forecast accuracy are discussed. Finite sample behavior in a bivariate model is studied by Monte Carlo using control variables. We also analyse the interaction between unit roots and cointegrating restrictions and intercepts in the DGP. Some of the issues are illustrated with an empirical example of forecasting the demand for M1 in the U.K. Copyright 1995 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 1995
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