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The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices Reconsidered

Partha Deb, Pravin Trivedi and Panayotis Varangis

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1996, vol. 11, issue 3, 275-91

Abstract: This paper provides an empirical reconsideration of evidence for excess co-movement of commodity prices within the framework of univariate and multivariate GARCH(1,1) models. Alternative formulations of zero excess co-movement are provided, and corresponding score and likelihood ratio tests are developed. Monthly time series data for two sample periods, 1960-85 and 1974-92, on up to nine commodities are used. In contrast to earlier work, only weak evidence of excess co-movement is found. Copyright 1996 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 1996
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