Can We Improve the Perceived Quality of Economic Forecasts?

Clive Granger

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1996, vol. 11, issue 5, 455-73

Abstract: A number of topics are discussed concerning how economic forecasts can be improved in quality or at least in presentation. These include the following: using 50% uncertainty intervals rather than 95%; noting that even though forecasters use many different techniques, they are all occasionally incorrect in the same direction; that there is a tendency to underestimate changes; that some expectations and recently available data are used insufficiently; lagged forecasts errors can help compensate for structural breaks; series that are more forecastable could be emphasized and that present methods of evaluating forecasts do not capture the useful properties of some methods compared to alternatives. Copyright 1996 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 1996
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