The analysis of transitions in economic performance using covariate dependent statistical models

Adam Baharum and M. Ataharul Islam ()
Additional contact information
M. Ataharul Islam: Universiti Sains Malaysia, Malaysia

Journal of Developing Areas, 2010, vol. 43, issue 2, 289-298

Abstract: The GDP or GNP as a measure of economic performance of a country changes continuously. We can identify the factors that precede its ups and downs. For such forecasting, the use of Markov models are not new, but in this paper, an attempt is made to propose a covariate-dependent Markov model to identify the factors that contribute to the estimation of transition probabilities. The proposed model is employed to estimate the transition probabilities, the factors that contribute to transitions in economic performance, and other relevant characteristics. The cross- country data have been employed for the period 1980–2000 for fitting the model. This can provide a useful model for forecasting the economic performance in both developing and developed countries.

Keywords: GDP; Transition Probabilities; Markov Model; Logistic Regression; Economic Performance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C35 O12 O40 O57 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_of_developing_areas/v043/43.2.baharum.html

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jda:journl:vol.43:year:2010:issue2:pp:289-298

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Developing Areas from Tennessee State University, College of Business Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Abu N.M. Wahid ().