THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EAST ASIAN COUNTRIES: A MULTIVARIATE THRESHOLD AUTOREGRESSIVE APPROACH

Chien-Hui Lee () and Bwo-Nung Huang ()
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Chien-Hui Lee: Department of International Trade, National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences
Bwo-Nung Huang: Department of Economics, National Chung-Cheng University

Journal of Economic Development, 2002, vol. 27, issue 2, 45-68

Abstract: During the process of economic development, different economic policies are adopted in accordance with particular circumstances. Therefore, conventional methods of time-series analysis may give misleading results if the problems associated with regime switches are not considered. The relationship between export growth and output growth is explored using a multivariate threshold model with regimes defined by the export-import ratio. In the cases of five countries that are recognized as being outward-oriented, we find that, except for Hong Kong, the relationship whereby exports lead output prevails in at least one regime for each of four of the countries being studied. The regime-based threshold autoregressive model thus appears to possess certain advantages over the more conventional linear autoregressive model.

Keywords: Multivariate Threshold Autoregressive Model; Export Growth; Output Growth; Export-import Ratio (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 F10 F43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (35)

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