THE IDENTIFICATION OF INFLATION RATE DETERMINANTS IN THE USA USING THE STOCHASTIC SEARCH VARIABLE SELECTION
Mihaela Simionescu (Bratu)
CES Working Papers, 2016, vol. 8(1), issue 1, 171-181
Inflation rate determinants for the USA have been analyzed in this study starting with 2008, when the American economy was already in crisis. This research brings, as a novelty, the use of Bayesian Econometrics methods to identify the monthly inflation rate in the USA. The Stochastic Search Variable Selection (SSVS) has been applied for a subjective probability acceptance of 0.3. The results are validated also by economic theory. The monthly inflation rate was influenced during 2008-2015 by: the unemployment rate, the exchange rate, crude oil prices, the trade weighted U.S. Dollar Index and the M2 Money Stock. The study might be continued by considering other potential determinants of the inflation rate.
Keywords: inflation rate; stochastic search; crisis; prices (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jes:wpaper:y:2016:v:8:i:1:p:171-181
Access Statistics for this article
More articles in CES Working Papers from Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Alupului Ciprian ().