Analogous Cycles with Lagged Co-movement: U.S. and East Asian Business Cycles

Tatsufumi Yamagata

The Developing Economies, 1998, vol. 36, issue 4, 407-439

Abstract: In selected East Asian economies, the behavior of detrended macroeconomic variables was found to be similar to that observed in the postwar U.S. economy. Consumption and investment are highly procyclical while the balance of trade and the price level are counter-cyclical in most of them. Labor productivity is procyclical in general. The high coherence between U.S. GDP and that of the East Asian economies suggests that business cycles in terms of frequency are also similar between the United States and East Asia. However, the GDP and consumption of East Asian countries do not necessarily co-move well with current U.S. and Japanese GDP and consumption, while East Asian consumption tends to co-move more with lagged U.S. and Japanese consumption.

Keywords: Business cycles; East Asia; United States; Taiwan; Hong Kong; Japan; South Korea; Philippines; Singapore; Thailand; 景気; 東アジア; アメリカ合衆国; 台湾; 香港; 日本; 韓国; フィリピン; シンガポール; タイ (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1998
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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